Designing ‘optimal’ sanctions on Russian imports

Restricting Russian imports is an important instrument in Allies' sanction toolbox. Rather than arbitrarily choosing the set of targeted imported products and level import tariff increases (as typically done literature), we follow recent contributions on ‘optimal sanction’ strategies. We apply a workhorse computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, GTAP, way that enables us to endogenise scope sectors targeted, magnitude disbursement revenues. This allows identify sets Allied restrictions best achieve objectives inflicting highest economic pain Russia while at same time keeping self-harm Allies as low equitably distributed possible. With regard scope, find that, instead targeting across board, fare better when limiting their sanctions from eight most-imported sectors. Regarding optimal levels, rather imposing all-out bans, range 20–25 percentage points objectives. Finally, coalition could benefit burden-sharing arrangement which proceeds generated additional rents are redistributed among Allies, other cash transfers allowed for. Doing so would result more equitable distribution losses countries—at hardly any ‘cost’ (in terms extra or reduced Russia). Such significantly strengthen cohesion, resilience, longevity coalition, thus ought become component strategy. As alternative redistributing countries, consider using those funds towards supporting Ukraine directly. involve small sacrifice by scarcely compromise effectiveness sanctions. However, it greatly help mitigating human catastrophe unfolding around Ukraine.